The Chinese academy of social sciences financial deputy director of institute, said current YanJianFeng RMB internationalization facing two questions, with less, import export with more. Although the imported more than with the yuan is going out a channel, but produced additional monetary substitution foreign exchange reserves rose effect, is we need to consider. Below is part YanJianFeng speech content:
[YanJianFeng] major economies, its currency is successfully realized internationalization, and become the most key reserve currency, such as pounds, such as dollars. The IMF statistics can recognize foreign exchange reserve about 60 is dollars, 30% is euros, for the remaining 10% currencies such as the yen's. From this point of view, the yen it is not a important reserve currency, and the yen has other foreign exchange to support behind, from this perspective, the Japanese yen internationalization is a failure, the yen will fail? Why internationalization From the 1980s and 1990s including many Japanese and American scholars in studying this problem. One Japanese scholar summarized in 1982 72 years to 82 years ten years, Japan in the import and export of the situation, found that the use of the yen to 80 years Japan's export trade 34% just use yen, and only 4% import trade using yen. This situation just and China instead, China's import trade using multi, export trade use less. Japan mainly because more than 50% energy commodities, and commodities priced in dollars, is developed the commodity futures trading market $decision. Japan's export trade is far lower than the west Germany, they found at Japan's export trade at a quarter to the United States, probably the same scale is there time for the European economic community. The two parts yen use proportion is very small, almost impossible. This tell us today cross-border trade settlement phenomenon of yuan, can see fits well in guangdong, why RMB cross-border settlement much bigger than Shanghai. I think one of them is mainly guangdong facing southeast Asia, Shanghai here face euramerican day this economy. When Japanese faces and today China very much like the export, especially for strong economies export trade yen difficult to launch. [21:03:43]
[YanJianFeng] we know from 84 years may, Japan and the United States, founded the yen dollars to push the yen committee began the internationalization. The yen has a very important international was the characteristics, capital of open, open the speed and scale of far more quickly than in Japan the domestic financial system reform. So from 84 years second half of the year begins, as the yen internationalization advancement, Japan offshoring market developing rapidly, particularly 85 years under the background of the yen and the yen offshore financial market is developing very fast. But the yen offshore financial market is a very deformity of the market, in two types of deals is mainly. Kind of trading is in Japan's financial institutions have shifted money offshore market, such as London, United States, Hong Kong, then from offshore market shift money to Japan. When Japanese study author says capital cycle is debt loans, anyway, the Japanese himself playing his money. Offshore financial market and international investors, part transaction is in borrowed yen to not want to hold yen, they found that international investors to yen-based bonds and stocks have no interest at all, they borrowed yen into dollars and other currencies immediately invest the United States and Europe. Offshore in the market main trading is the former, funds from Japan is out, through offshore markets turn a circle back to Japan, back to Japan main stem what? The stock market is the main, Fried real estate. [21:06:34]
[YanJianFeng] in the 1990s, Japan's economic crisis and the offshore money reflux is actually closely related. So to say more straightforward bit, yen internationalization, Japan offshore market debt market development, is actually shore Japanese play by myself oneself of money, finally put himself play dead. [21:07:40]
[YanJianFeng] from yen internationalization failure to see, at present China facing two questions, with less, import export with more. Of course the import is more with the RMB can walk out a channel, but how to solve the extra generated currency substitute the effect of foreign exchange reserves rose, is we need to consider, whether we can take encourage export trade use renminbi some concrete measures? Another are we going to make our exchange rate more flexible.
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